Joe Lunardi’s 2010 Bracket Accuracy

Last year I created a method that would REALLY determine ESPN “bracketologist” Joe Lunardi’s accuracy in predicting the field of 65. Saying Lunardi got 64 out of 65 teams correct is no big accomplishment because over 50 of those teams either received auto-bids or were locks. Let’s see how well he performed in 2010.

Teams Correctly Seeded (Red denotes incorrect projections)


Actual: Syracuse, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky

Lunardi: Syracuse, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky


Actual: West Virginia, Ohio State, Villanova, Kansas State

Lunardi: West Virginia, Ohio State, Georgetown, Kansas State


Actual: New Mexico, Georgetown, Baylor, Pittsburgh

Lunardi: Villanova, Wisconsin, Baylor, Pittsburgh


Actual: Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Maryland

Lunardi: Purdue, New Mexico, Temple, Tennessee


Actual: Texas A&M, Butler, Michigan State, Temple

Lunardi: Maryland, Butler, Michigan State, Vanderbilt


Actual: Marquette, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Xavier

Lunardi: BYU, Richmond, Texas A&M, Xavier


Actual: BYU, Oklahoma State, Clemson, Richmond

Lunardi: Texas, Cal, Northern Iowa, Gonzaga


Actual: Gonzaga, California, UNLV, Texas

Lunardi: Marquette, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Florida State


Actual: Florida State, Northern Iowa, Louisville, Wake Forest

Lunardi: UTEP, San Diego State, Louisville, Missouri


Actual: Missouri, Florida, Georgia Tech, St. Mary’s

Lunardi: UNLV, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, Clemson


Actual: Washington, San Diego State, Minnesota, Old Dominion

Lunardi: Washington, Siena, Cornell, St Mary’s


Actual: Cornell, UTEP, Utah State, New Mexico State

Lunardi: Minnesota, Illinois, Utah State, Wake Forest


Actual: Siena, Murray State, Wofford, Houston

Lunardi: Montana, Murray State, New Mexico State, Sam Houston State


Actual: Ohio, Montana, Oakland, Sam Houston State

Lunardi: Ohio, Houston, Oakland, Wofford


Actual: Robert Morris, North Texas, UC Santa Barbara, Morgan State

Lunardi: Vermont, North Texas, UC Santa Barbara, Morgan State


Actual: Winthrop, Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Vermont, Lehigh, East Tennessee State

Lunardi: Winthrop, Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Robert Morris, Lehigh, East Tennessee State

TOTAL: 27 of 65 (41.5%)

A drop from his 31/65 last year.


Teams Correctly Put in Each Region

Midwest: Kansas, Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland, Michigan State, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, UNLV, Northern Iowa, Georgia Tech, San Diego State, New Mexico State, Houston, Ohio, UCSB, Lehigh

Lunardi: Kansas, Ohio State, Villanova, New Mexico, Maryland, Xavier, Texas, Marquette, UTEP, UNLV, Cornell, Minnesota, Montana, Ohio, North Texas, Robert Morris

East: Kentucky, West Virginia, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Temple, Marquette, Clemson, Texas, Wake Forest, Missouri, Washington, Cornell, Wofford, Montana, Morgan State, East Tennessee State

Lunardi: Kentucky, Georgetown, Baylor, Temple, Michigan State, BYU, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Washington, Wake Forest, Sam Houston State, Houston, Morgan State, Play-in winner

South: Duke, Villanova, Baylor, Purdue, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Richmond, California, Louisville, St Mary’s, Old Dominion, Utah State, Siena, Sam Houston State, Robert Morris, Play-in winner

Lunardi: Syracuse, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Richmond, Gonzaga, Florida State, Missouri, Clemson, Siena, Utah State, Murray State, Wofford, UC Santa Barbara, Lehigh

West: Syracuse, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Butler, Xavier, BYU, Gonzaga, Florida State, Florida, Minnesota, UTEP, Murray State, Oakland, North Texas, Vermont

Lunardi: Duke, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Butler, Texas A&M, California, Notre Dame, San Diego State, Old Dominion, St. Mary’s, Illinois, New Mexico State, Oakland, Vermont, East Tennessee State

TOTAL: 17 of 64 (26.5%)

A pretty sharp drop from his 29/64 effort last year.


Play-in Game: Arkansas Pine-Bluff vs. Winthrop

Lunardi: Arkansas Pine-Bluff vs. Winthrop

100% accuracy! Joe also correctly predicted the New Mexico vs. Montana game.

Don’t interpret this as a Joe Lunardi bashing post. It’s a statistics article looking at how I determine a projected bracket to be accurate. Although this year the committee and Joe weren’t on the same page as to which teams should go to which regions.

March Madness Simulated is coming up later tonight.


3 thoughts on “Joe Lunardi’s 2010 Bracket Accuracy

  1. JFein

    For comparison’s sake, Chris Dobbertean announced on today’s On The DL Podcast that he was only 24 of 65 with getting team’s correctly seeded. I don’t have any numbers on Dobbertean for comparison purposes, but I have read and heard a lot about teams being over/under-seeded, so I think that could have thrown Bracketologists everywhere for a loop.

  2. Pingback: Joe Lunardi’s 2012 Bracket Accuracy | Stupid Sideline Reporters

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