The Seattle Seahawks Season Summed Up in Ten Graphs

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That my friends is a slideshow of probability graphs courtesy of Advanced NFL Stats. The win probability graphs are defined per their website as:

The probability that a team will win a game in progress, given a particular combination of circumstances including score, time remaining, field position, down, and to go distance. WP is based on a model built on actual outcomes of NFL games from recent seasons that featured similar circumstances.

The other stats you see in the graphs (CBF and EI) are completely irrelevant and you’d be better off ignoring them.

This is the story of the 2010 Seattle Seahawks. They put themselves in unfavorable positions and over 50% of their season was spent playing the 2nd half as a mere formality. It was evident that this would occur frequently on the very first play of the season opener against San Francisco, when Matt Hasselbeck fired an interception to Nate Clements. Seattle won this game 31-6 but as you can see in the slideshow the 49ers would waste no time doing the exact same thing but with an actual offense.

It did not matter who the opponent was, Seattle would manage to fall behind. Whether it was the 11-5 Chicago Bears or even the 4-12 Denver Broncos the end result was the same. Some weeks the offense would just completely disappear like they did in St. Louis, other weeks the defense would have a meltdown like in San Francisco, and then you had the complete collapse from both sides in games such as Tampa Bay and the NY Giants.

In 18 games the Seahawks allowed a touchdown on the opposition’s opening drive 6 times, which is worst in the NFL. Is it a lack of preparation? I don’t think so. There’s a reason why they’re final record is 8-10 and they are simply not a quality team. They’re also a little on the old side, with 11 players in total (active and on IR) over 30. A further 6 are aged 29. That alone tells you a rebuild is inevitable and that the futures of Olindo Mare, Matt Hasselbeck, Brandon Stokley, Raheem Brock, etc. are all in doubt. The Seahawks need more players like Earl Thomas and less of journeymen like Junior Siavii. It’s not healthy to rely on veterans to carry on the faint hope of a miracle playoff run on the basis of being in the weak NFC West.

I’m extremely happy the Seahawks pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NFL Playoff history by beating the New Orleans Saints, but that’s the extent of the joy. The win did not change how horrible they’ve become after being perennial contenders. Seattle has to rebuild smartly to win consistently, not just for a one-off mediocre season like this one.



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