Survival Sunday Preview: Premier League Relegation Scenarios

While the end of the world has not come today, there will be a different type of rapture occurring tomorrow. At 6:00 PM BST I predict the end of the Premier League for two unlucky soccer clubs as they descend to the depths of the Npower Championship for at least one year. And this is a certainty, folks. Which two will get relegated? I don’t know that, sorry. Here are SOME of the 81  scenarios for the drop of doom tomorrow.

Current Standings With One Game Remaining

15th – Blackburn (40 pts, -14 GD)
16th – Wolves (40 pts, -19 GD)
17th – Birmingham (39 pts, -20 GD)
18th – Blackpool (39 pts, -21 GD)
19th – Wigan (39 pts, -22 GD)
20th – West Ham (33 pts, -24 GD, Relegated)

Blackburn

Thanks to a draw against Manchester United, this dreadful collection of longball dullards is in prime position to stay up for another season. Their opponent is relegation-rival Wolves at The Molineux. Currently they sit 15th on 40 points and will only be relegated if:

  • They draw Wolves and Birmingham, Wigan, and Blackpool all win.
  • They lose to Wolves and Birmingham, Wigan, and Blackpool all win.
  • They lose to Wolves, two of Birmingham, Wigan, or Blackpool draw and manage a superior goal differential. Essentially, Blackburn would need to lose by at least 7 goals.

All things considered they’re fairly safe.

Wolves

A 3-1 win over a poor Sunderland side has also put the Wanderers in a good position to stay in the Prem. The big difference for them is their goal differential is not much better than the teams below them in the standings. As mentioned above, they play Blackburn to end their campaign and would only see the drop if:

  • They draw Blackburn and two of Birmingham, Blackpool, or Wigan win.
  • They lose to Blackburn and two of Birmingham, Blackpool, or Wigan win.
  • They lose to Blackburn by 2 goals or more and Birmingham and Blackpool draw.

Wolves can probably afford to lose but they shouldn’t hold their breath and assume results play out as they normally would when the likes of Tottenham or Man Utd play relegation-threatened sides at home. If Wolves do go down they’ll have gone down having beaten Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool, and drawing Tottenham 3-3.

Birmingham

The snooze-inducers out of the midlands shouldn’t even be in this spot. A 2-0 loss to Fulham ensured they would be in the scrap. Unlike Blackpool, B’Ham play a team with incentive to actually play their starters. Tottenham need a draw or a win to clinch a Europa League spot. Say bye-bye to the Brums if:

  • They lose to Tottenham and Blackpool and Wigan have a better goal differential.
  • They lose to Tottenham and Blackpool or Wigan draw/win.
  • They draw Tottenham but Blackpool or Wigan win.

Blackpool

Where did it all go wrong? Leaking 74 goals in a season is where it went wrong for the Tangerines. Now they face the daunting task of going to Old Trafford to play Manchester United for their Premier League lives. They finally managed a win, a thrilling 4-3 triumph over Bolton, but Wolves’ win against Sunderland kept them in the drop zone. Will Manchester United play a strong lineup having already won the title? Would it even matter? Blackpool are in a unique situation here and they may not even need to earn a point to stay up (although it would certainly help!). But they’re headed down if:

  • They lose to Manchester United and Birmingham or Wigan draw.
  • They lose to Manchester United and Birmingham and/or Wigan loses but maintain a superior goal differential.
  • They draw Manchester United but Wigan, Wolves/Blackburn, and Birmingham win.

There are a lot of other ways for them to go down but you get the picture.

Wigan

A club with roughly 390 fans may finally see their status as a Premier League club come to an end. Simply put they’re finished if:

  • They lose to Stoke and Birmingham and Blackpool lose but maintain superior goal differentials.
  • They draw Stoke but Birmingham and Blackpool also draw.
  • They draw Stoke but Birmingham and Blackpool win.

This is too tough. This nifty chart will do the trick.

Tomorrow is the real judgment day. Can’t wait for the madness! My predictions are as follows:

Wolves 2 Blackburn 1
Man Utd 2 Blackpool 0
Tottenham 2 Birmingham 1
Stoke 1 Wigan 1

Meaning:

15.) Wolves – 43 pts
16.) Blackburn – 40 pts (-15 GD)
17.) Wigan – 40 pts (-22 GD)
___________________________
18.) Birmingham – 39 pts (-21 GD)
19.) Blackpool – 39 pts (-24 GD)
20.) West Ham – Whatever they want

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3 thoughts on “Survival Sunday Preview: Premier League Relegation Scenarios

  1. Justin F.

    Somewhat off-topic, but if you ever feel like punching something for whatever reason today, watching this video will put you over the edge for sure. ;-)

    Reply
    1. Mookie Post author

      What a goal. The cheeky bastard.

      I didn’t know you could embed videos to Youtube either. How did you do it? Just copy and paste the URL?

      Reply

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